I have a theory. It is not just based upon the pandemic, but accelerated by pandemic conditions.
I am deeply concerned that we currently have too many over-generalized, non-distinct, over-priced, inflexible, smallish private schools and colleges, with limited resources. They are all trying to find a way to preserve a past that is declining. There simply won’t be room for all of them.
Last month, USA Today ran an article on the death of a handful of small private colleges. Once bastions of small classes and nurturing relationships in quintessential collegiate settings, a lack of distinctiveness, demand, and ample reserves in a changing world sealed their fate. They entered the pandemic struggling and, like many things, it only accelerated their fate.
One of these college deaths was MacMurray College in Jacksonville, Illinois. It is about 2 hours south of my hometown in Central Illinois. It has a special place in my heart as I used to play some summer tennis tournaments on their campus. Founded by the Methodist Church, it enjoyed a 174 year history, spanning world wars, depressions, and other global catastrophes. It was named a College of Distinction six years running by one publication and has been a beacon of light for first generation students from the rural Midwest for a century and a half. But, it also competed with a litany of other small, private liberal arts colleges in the state and Midwest that shared the same, general circumstances.
Long before the pandemic, I took a cabinet level job at a college not unlike MacMurray. I managed enrollment, marketing, communication, and research at a similar college. My first week on the job one of our competitors closed and I found myself driving across the state to attend a fire sale as the College literally sold off assets to pay debts. It was sobering to see a once thriving community decimated by a college death, a college that had been the lifeblood of that rural community. Generations upon generations had found careers, spouses, and passions at that place. And, in a moment, it was gone.
Expect to see more of this, folks. The consolidation and contraction of this moment in time is real. It will continue. There will be winners (those that innovate) and there will be losers (those that die). And, in the middle will be those just trying to adapt but not leading in any way.
And, if there is anything that I have learned in my 35 year career so far it is simple:
If you are not the leader in something that matters, your future is likely in jeopardy.