Preserving the Past or Meeting the Future

This is not an article about what is right or wrong, just about what is fact. So, try to read it with some honest candor about your situation.

Before Amazon took over distance retailing, a visit to any rural community in America would reveal a lot of the same products. Most people had the same toasters, coffee makers, and clothing, often purchased at the local department or hardware store. A family might take an occasional trip to the big city in which they would bring back some more diverse purchases, but that was an exception rather than a rule.

Amazon came along and changed all that. They democratized quick and ubiquitous access to a global array of goods and services, allowing people in smaller communities to have the same access to the goods that people do in urban areas.

The same is going to happen to education, folks.

The pandemic accelerated many things, but at the top of the list was online learning in education. Over 50 million students are learning remotely in the United States alone this year. The dramatic innovations in online learning and teaching are going to be profound after this year is all done. There is no going back to the past. This is where a large portion of education will live in the future.

I am not declaring that high quality, brick and mortar, place-based education will not live in the future. Sure it will. But, it will not look the same and it will be heavily complimented by more diverse learners and delivery platforms than ever before, from every corner of the globe. There will be room for extraordinarily good place-based learning enterprise, but they will need to be distinct, relevant, local, and boutique.

Why this article? I am deeply concerned that we currently have too many over-generalized, non-distinct, smallish private schools and colleges, with limited resources. They are all trying to find a way to preserve a past that is declining. There simply won’t be room for all of them. And, those with the greatest resources and biggest brands will likely command attention and marketshare initially. Others will either need to meet the future with innovation, be a small boutique on the roadside, or do something extraordinary relevant in their local community. But, they can’t be all things to all people. That will be their demise, for sure.

Again, it is not a judgement, but just brutal honesty.

Thinking About Reinvention

We have just crammed a decade of educational innovation into six months. Schools and colleges pivoted, redefining how they deploy technology, use space, and set up their schedule. These are things that have been listed in strategic plans for over a decade and, left to their own intentions, schools and colleges did not innovate much. Then came the pandemic and with it came the urgency to reinvent. In fact, reinvent or die.

Talking with schools and colleges every day, I see three distinct stages of reinvention having occurred since March 2020. They are:

1. Phase One, or the “deer in the headlights” phase, was from March to June 2020 and marked by an all hell’s broken loose move to remote learning, no matter if your organization was ready or not.

2. Phase Two, or the “we have to reopen in the fall” phase, was from June to August 2020 and marked by thoughtful scenario building, health compliance considerations, and an all summer push for a new way to open.

3. Phase Three, or the “what’s next” phase, is hitting schools and colleges now and it is marked by thinking and planning strategically for a new reality where day schools compete globally, technology levels the playing field, and learning becomes more stratified in delivery platforms and cost structures.

We are at the dawn of the economic redistribution of learning through technology. What happens in the next 36 months will largely determine what the playing field of the future looks like. The time to develop strategy is now.

Eight Cultural Trends That Will Change Us Permanently

I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the long-term implications of our current reality. I enjoy identifying cultural trends and trying to decipher what they might mean for education and nonprofits. It is what we do as a firm; finding both the trend and then the opportunity. But, more importantly, I think we are all trying to get out of the day to day challenges that we face both as a region in North America and across the globe. The daily news is tough and does not seem to be getting better.

We all know the analogy. The tip of the iceberg tells us that the mass is there, but does not indicate its overall size. I believe society (collectively) is in the midst of hitting eight enormous icebergs - perhaps the largest ones in modern history - and the future will be changed permanently as a result of the impact. These are the eight cultural trends that will change us permanently.

Global Disease

We are in the middle of a global pandemic that has no real short-term answer except for triage. It has demonstrated the inherent weakness in our global disease system and shown us all just how fragile - and connected - we are in a global health crisis. The impact of this pandemic on the future of the world will be deep and long-term. Understanding and altering how pandemic disease transmission works in urban settings is a new concept for Americans. Up until March, most Americans thought our nation was untouchable by a pandemic, believing that this level of infection was reserved for distant worlds with inferior healthcare systems, such underdeveloped Asian or African nations. No, it is here to stay.

Marginalization of People

We are in the midst of seeing just how marginalized some groups of people really are in first world countries. It may be hard to remember this, but only six months ago we were focused on the MeToo movement, trying to wrap our heads around the long-term marginalization of women. Seems like a long time ago, right? The global pandemic has given us a first-hand look at how poor people and minorities have been much more significantly impacted by a health crisis. And, our current political environment is only one measure that there exists significant racism in America and other democracies around the world. Developed democracies are now waking up to the systemic marginalization of many groups of people. And, to be honest, some just don’t want to see it, recognize it, or give it any level of credibility. Understanding and addressing marginalization, as a movement, is here to stay.

Online Living

Nearly every working household in North America has experienced remote working and schooling. Marketers call this the exposure or penetration rate of an experience. Up until March 2020, the normal, day-to-day family lifestyles that defined America and most democracies included daily doses of place-based work and school. Now, most families have experienced and developed an online identity and daily routine. This will serve to restructure the employment and education sector permanently. I am not saying that all school or work will be online in the future. But, it has rapidly accelerated an inevitable movement to an online world of work and school. The genie is out of the bottle when it comes to online work and school. It is here to stay and will alter life as we know it.

Migration Patterns

When the pandemic hit, people living in urban populations were most impacted. Density of population is a dangerous thing when it comes to the spreading of a virus. Many urban dwellers with financial means escaped the city to less dense, more rural environments to weather the pandemic storm. Vacation homes and rentals increased and smaller communities welcomed new visitors. With the newfound ability and widespread acceptance to work and attend school from everywhere, urban displacement began. And, so far this summer, we are seeing a rise in the road trip for vacation. All of this adds up to a potential rise in migration to more rural, less dense communities where quality of life is higher and risk for infection remains lower. In a nutshell, there is evidence that North Americans are rethinking where they will live in the future.

Political Polarization

Where did the middle ground go? A quick review of the daily news in North America, and beyond, sees a breeding ground for greater political polarization. In the United States, it is clear that battle lines are currently being drawn between left and right sides of the political spectrum on some of the issues outlined so far. There appears to be a diminished - perhaps non-existent - middle or moderate ground. Social media and major news outlets are drawing boundaries, accelerating the divide. The current political environment may divide us in the future more than we think. I find it hard to imagine how we will recover from our current circumstances and be a united nation once again.

Demographic Shifts

Urban markets across the nation are all suffering - to one degree or another - from some of the same challenges as it relates to a changing America. Several variables contribute to what most would agree will signify a major shift in our culture for the future. These include geographic displacement, resulting transportation challenges, profound generational differences (Boomers/Gen X’rs vs Millennials and Gen Z’s), rising income disparity, the silvering and aging of America, and the increasing ethnic diversity of America. In 2042, America will be a minority majority nation. We are witnessing real-time a recalibration of our urban areas around these key variables.

Global Competition

With the ability to work, shop, and go to school from anywhere, we are now entering into a new era of global competition. Day schools and community colleges may no longer complete in geographically bound locations but instead in a global marketplace. Our guess is that many schools, colleges, and employers will move to a hybrid model, working simultaneously in both place-based and virtual worlds. This will allow them to build up or scale down dependent upon needs and circumstances. But, it will also mean that smallish, community-based organizations have the opportunity to carve out a niche in a global marketplace. The real era of globalization is clearly upon us, even during a more nationalist or populist political movement. And, it is here to stay.

Community Building

Finally, as virtual living matures, geographic migration patterns evolve, and global competition becomes more fierce, the ways in which we build community will evolve. Most democracies have relied on organizations and neighborhoods to serve as hubs for community-building. With the shifting patterns we have identified, our hunch is that community-building will take on new forms in the future. In the past, people leaned into the church, school, employer, or neighborhood to find their people. In the future, our guess is that community-building will be redefined. It has to be, given all of the variables at play.

We are in uncharted territory. I don’t believe we have seen these seven issues at work in such a disruptive way in the past, or at least not in modern history. Our best guess is that they will work in an accelerated fashion to create a new normal.

Better, Cheaper, Faster

On a recent drive across a stretch of interstate in North Carolina as I headed to a client, I witnessed at least 20 billboards that displayed advertisements for higher educational institutions. While the names of the colleges and universities matter very little, the messages that each conveyed is of great import. Essentially, they all claimed that their programs were the best, the least expensive, and offered the most accelerated and flexible paths to learning.

Better. Cheaper. Faster. This trend is not going away, but actually accelerating in higher education. It has long been the value proposition in some areas of retail, entertainment, and general good and services, but it has clearly become among the ways in which higher education and, increasingly, private primary and secondary education, intend to compete in the future. Technology is playing a catalytic role in advancing this strategy. Add the role of augmented reality (AR) and artificial intelligence (AI) in the delivery of knowledge and experiences, we are in brave new world.

If we thought that the past decade moved quickly, I am afraid we have not seen anything yet. This next decade will deliver light speed change to the education industry. Better hold on. More on this thinking later this week. Happy New Year!